Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:22:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7baa…eade other 14 markets active 15h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$33 (-23%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%2W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$7
crypto 12% −$17
sports 10% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-57.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -52.6% -57.1% 14% 14% -31.2%
≤30d 14 -52.6% -57.1% 14% 14% -31.2%
≤90d 14 -52.6% -57.1% 14% 14% -31.2%
all 14 -52.6% -57.1% 14% 14% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.1% 14% -31.2%
10% -61.2% 7% -37.8%
15% -65.0% 7% -43.8%
20% -68.4% 0% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses2 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 +$13 +36%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$6 -49%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $23 +$5 +21%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -5%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 $0 -38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $10 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 15h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 18h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 29h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $13 30h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $7 30h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 30h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 31h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 31h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 31h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 32h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 32h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $28 33h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 49¢ $10 33h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $9 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 49¢ $10 33h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 79¢ $3 33h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 33h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 36h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 36h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 37h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records