Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7ba9…a592 other 138 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%21W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$14
14 days−$52
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$26
politics 26% −$46
sports 16% −$9
crypto 14% +$1
world 5% −$2
economics 4% +$10
culture 2% $0
finance 2% +$1
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.8% -10.2% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 61 -1.5% -10.9% 5% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 110 -0.9% -10.4% 13% 0% -9.9%
all 137 -0.7% -10.2% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses21 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage106d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $89 −$2 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $154 −$1 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $47 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $154 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $50 $0 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $24 −$1 -3%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $63 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $92 −$1 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $457 −$1 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $67 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $123 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $504 −$2 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $115 $0 -0%
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $720 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 07 $48 $0 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $46 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $46 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $243 −$2 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 05 $48 −$1 -3%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $95 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $92 −$1 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $9 $0 -5%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential Jun 03 $58 −$27 -47%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $59 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $234 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $148 −$1 -0%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 28 $39 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $66 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $85 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 0m
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $18 25m
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $57 59m
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $58 6h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $47 6h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $48 12h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $43 13h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $21 19h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $22 19h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $46 20h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 24h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $3 24h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $3 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $50 29h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $50 33h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 33h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 38h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 39h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 45h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $23 46h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $24 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 2d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $55 2d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $55 2d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $58 3d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $63 3d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $63 3d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $62 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.77 · official $17.77 (match) · 553 history records