Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:36:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7B 0x7ba7…106e crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$42 (+23%) realized +$33 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate75%12W / 4L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day41.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$7
sports 48% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +27.1% +15.0% 75% 69% +18.0%
≤30d 16 +27.1% +15.0% 75% 69% +18.0%
≤90d 16 +27.1% +15.0% 75% 69% +18.0%
all 16 +27.1% +15.0% 75% 69% +18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.0% 69% +18.0%
10% ← realistic here +4.0% 44% +6.7%
15% -6.0% 31% -3.6%
20% -15.3% 19% -13.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.91 per $1 lost it wins $2.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses12 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day41.6
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Over 58¢ 84¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +13%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $25 +$11 +46%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$24 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +25%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$21 +140%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 10m
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.79 · official $28.79 (match) · 48 history records