Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:31:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7ba4…4f6b sports 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$876 (-22%) realized −$850 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate82%23W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$43
14 days+$43
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 87% −$903
sports 9% +$13
other 3% +$14
crypto 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +10.1% -0.4% 92% 58% -0.8%
≤30d 24 +10.1% -0.4% 92% 58% -0.8%
≤90d 28 +2.5% -7.2% 82% 54% -52.3%
all 28 +2.5% -7.2% 82% 54% -52.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 54% -52.3%
10% -16.1% 32% -56.8%
15% -24.2% 11% -61.0%
20% -31.7% 4% -64.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$199 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$850
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses23 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)28 / 32
History coverage73d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Naomi Osaka 85¢ 70¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier Toronto KOI 78¢ 32¢ $22 $9 −$13 (-59%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 85¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $15 +$6 +36%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $35 +$5 +14%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $33 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close Jun 21 $35 +$4 +11%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 21 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $10 +$3 +29%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $26 +$4 +17%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $24 +$3 +11%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 21 $22 +$1 +5%
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 21 $22 $0 +2%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $22 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 +$6 +27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $5 +$2 +32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $16 $0 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$4 +29%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $4 +$1 +34%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 18 $2,070 +$74 +4%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 14 $444 −$444 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 12 $874 −$532 -61%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 12 $73 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY Toronto KOI 50¢ $2 0m
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY Toronto KOI 83¢ $20 3m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 100¢ $21 7m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 73¢ $15 18m
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 89¢ $30 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 79¢ $5 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $35 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 97¢ $3 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $3 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 98¢ $3 2h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 95¢ $30 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 95¢ $0 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 98¢ $33 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 90¢ $6 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 79¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 89¢ $30 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $22 5h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Naomi Osaka 85¢ $20 5h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close SELL Phantom 100¢ $0 5h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close SELL Phantom 98¢ $39 5h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY Phantom 88¢ $35 6h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Nigma Galaxy 99¢ $21 6h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner SELL Phantom 100¢ $13 7h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Nigma Galaxy 94¢ $20 7h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner BUY Phantom 77¢ $10 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ $31 9h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 81¢ $21 9h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 75¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL ENERGYULTRA 99¢ $27 10h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ENERGYULTRA 96¢ $18 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.60 · official $45.60 (match) · 177 history records