Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:15:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7ba3…8d20 other 1676 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$489 (+1%) realized +$488 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%1661W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day52.6pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$42
14 days−$107
30 days−$788
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$655
other 39% +$157
world 3% +$72
weather 1% +$5
tech 1% −$509
crypto 1% +$19
culture 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +1.0% -8.6% 98% 2% -8.4%
≤30d 1293 +4.7% -5.3% 99% 1% -10.7%
≤90d 1676 +5.7% -4.4% 99% 1% -10.6%
all 1676 +5.7% -4.4% 99% 1% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 1% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.5% 1% -19.2%
15% -21.9% 1% -27.0%
20% -29.5% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$136 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$488
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1661 / 15
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1676 / 1676
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$45
Trades / day52.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1676 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 13¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Lee vs Chen Jun 26 $350 +$4 +1%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Second half draw? Jun 26 $30 $0 +1%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Esports (-6.5) vs Sashi Esport (+6 Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Game 2: Ends in Daytime? Jun 26 $99 +$1 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Jecan/Pavel vs Loof/Uesugi Jun 25 $62 +$1 +2%
Zheng vs. Wang: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: UNO MILLE (-3.5) vs Game Hunters (+3.5) Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Ermedin Demirović: 2+ shots Jun 24 $3 $0 +1%
Ermin Mahmić: 1+ goals Jun 24 $46 $0 +1%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama - Tea Jun 24 $16 $0 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley Jun 24 $347 +$4 +1%
Simon Banza: 1+ shots Jun 24 $16 $0 +1%
Plovdiv (Doubles): Faucon/Uzhylovsky vs Huang/Zheng Jun 24 $9 $0 +1%
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots Jun 23 $9 $0 +1%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $96 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 23 $350 +$3 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Chivas Esports (-4.5) vs Stray Kittens (+4.5) Jun 23 $5 +$4 +93%
Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target Jun 23 $16 $0 +1%
Set 2 Winner: Dabrowski/Stefani vs Detiuc/Khromacheva Jun 22 $4 $0 +1%
Stabaek IF vs. Egersunds IK: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Set 2 Winner: Kato/Rakhimova vs Appleton/Dudeney Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Completed Match: Kato/Rakhimova vs Appleton/Dud Jun 22 $6 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Kato/Rakhimova (-1.5) vs Appleton/Dudeney (+1.5) Jun 22 $98 +$1 +1%
Will a player from the United States of America win the 2026 U.S. Open Jun 22 $11 $0 +1%
Will Michael Kim finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
EC Juventude to win the second half? Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Kai Havertz: 1+ shots on target Jun 21 $19 $0 +1%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots on target Jun 21 $26 $0 +1%
Deniz Undav: 3+ shots on target Jun 21 $26 $0 +1%
Yahia Fofana: 5+ saves Jun 21 $33 +$1 +2%
Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots on target Jun 21 $55 +$1 +1%
Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots on target Jun 21 $55 +$1 +1%
Yasin Ayari: 1+ shots on target Jun 21 $55 +$1 +1%
Nilson Angulo: 1+ shots Jun 21 $49 +$2 +3%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 21 $350 +$3 +1%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 21 $4 $0 +1%
Noa Lang: 1+ shots Jun 20 $1 $0 +4%
Alisson: 3+ saves Jun 20 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Chiefs win the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific Grand Final? Jun 20 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $161 +$2 +1%
Will Chicago Wolves win American Hockey League? Jun 20 $90 +$2 +3%
Achraf Hakimi: 2+ shots Jun 20 $111 +$2 +2%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 20 $8 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: YNDX (-1.5) vs FORZE Esports (+1.5) Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $131 +$1 +1%
MLP St. Petersburg: Palm Beach Royals vs Columbus Sliders Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
CF Universidad de Chile to win the second half? Jun 19 $108 +$1 +1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-3.5) vs EDward Gaming (+3.5) Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Honor of Kings: Deep Cross Gaming vs King of Gamers Club (BO3) - Arena Jun 19 $109 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set 1 Winner: Lee vs Chen BUY Chen 99¢ $266 1h
Set 1 Winner: Lee vs Chen BUY Chen 99¢ $84 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Second half draw? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 1h
Game 2: Ends in Daytime? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 3h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Esports (-6.5) vs Sashi Esport (+6 BUY Sashi Esport 99¢ $5 4h
Set 1 Winner: Jecan/Pavel vs Loof/Uesugi BUY Loof/Uesugi 98¢ $62 13h
Zheng vs. Wang: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 22h
Ermedin Demirović: 2+ shots BUY No 99¢ $3 29h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: UNO MILLE (-3.5) vs Game Hunters (+3.5) BUY UNO MILLE 99¢ $10 30h
Ermin Mahmić: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $46 32h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama - Tea BUY Yes 99¢ $16 36h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley BUY Fiona Crawley 99¢ $5 37h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley BUY Fiona Crawley 99¢ $114 37h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley BUY Fiona Crawley 99¢ $228 37h
Simon Banza: 1+ shots BUY No 99¢ $16 42h
Plovdiv (Doubles): Faucon/Uzhylovsky vs Huang/Zheng BUY Huang/Zheng 99¢ $9 43h
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots BUY No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $96 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $350 2d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Chivas Esports (-4.5) vs Stray Kittens (+4.5) BUY Chivas Esports 51¢ $5 3d
Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target BUY Yes 99¢ $16 3d
Set 2 Winner: Dabrowski/Stefani vs Detiuc/Khromacheva BUY Dabrowski/Stefani 99¢ $4 3d
Stabaek IF vs. Egersunds IK: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Completed Match: Kato/Rakhimova vs Appleton/Dud BUY Yes 99¢ $6 3d
Set 2 Winner: Kato/Rakhimova vs Appleton/Dudeney BUY Kato/Rakhimova 99¢ $5 3d
Set Handicap: Kato/Rakhimova (-1.5) vs Appleton/Dudeney (+1.5) BUY Kato/Rakhimova 99¢ $98 3d
Will a player from the United States of America win the 2026 U.S. Open BUY Yes 99¢ $11 4d
EC Juventude to win the second half? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 4d
Will Michael Kim finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $30 4d
Deniz Undav: 3+ shots on target BUY Yes 99¢ $26 5d
Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots on target BUY Yes 99¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.30 · official $101.30 (match) · 3500 history records