Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:30:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7ba3…56ae crypto 1260 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,659 (-1%) realized −$1,659 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate71%898W / 362L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$182
14 days−$182
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,913
sports 1% +$126
other 0% −$107
weather 0% −$33
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -25.3% -32.4% 52% 41% -25.2%
≤30d 29 -25.3% -32.4% 52% 41% -25.2%
≤90d 422 -17.0% -24.9% 63% 30% -16.7%
all 1260 -7.1% -16.0% 71% 47% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 47% -11.6%
10% -24.0% 27% -20.1%
15% -31.4% 14% -27.8%
20% -38.1% 6% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$57 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,659
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses898 / 362
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1260 / 1260
History coverage156d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1260 Trades
no open positions (243 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$15 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$16 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $62 −$50 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $114 +$24 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$14 +28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$9 +36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 18 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 18 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 18 $1 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 18 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 18 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 18 $20 −$15 -77%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 17 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 17 $21 +$11 +51%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 17 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 17 $20 +$2 +10%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 17 $106 −$103 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 17 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 17 $15 +$3 +18%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 17 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 17 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 17 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 17 $51 +$16 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $31 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $28 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $22 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $27 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3307 history records