Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:44:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7B 0x7ba2…2803 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-5%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%8W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$7
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$66
economics 6% −$38
sports 4% −$24
world 3% −$12
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -55.7% -60.0% 20% 20% +0.9%
≤30d 11 -43.9% -49.2% 27% 27% -5.5%
≤90d 11 -43.9% -49.2% 27% 27% -5.5%
all 26 -29.2% -36.0% 31% 31% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.0% 31% -10.6%
10% -42.1% 31% -19.2%
15% -47.7% 31% -27.0%
20% -52.8% 23% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$16 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses8 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage298d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 2 Argentina? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $29 +$35 +121%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $37 +$51 +139%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $45 +$25 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $53 −$52 -99%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-20? Sep 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-20? Sep 20 $30 +$33 +110%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? Sep 20 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-20? Sep 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-14? Sep 14 $50 +$40 +80%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-09-14? Sep 14 $20 −$12 -58%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-14? Sep 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-13? Sep 13 $20 −$11 -56%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-13? Sep 13 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? Sep 13 $20 −$18 -88%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-13? Sep 13 $66 +$75 +113%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-09-13? Sep 13 $20 −$10 -52%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-13? Sep 13 $19 +$7 +36%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 04 $7 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes $0 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes $0 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes $4 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes $6 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 64¢ $63 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $11 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $8 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 27¢ $8 7d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 8d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 8d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 8d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 8d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 88¢ $88 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $37 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $45 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 9d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $40 280d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $63 280d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? SELL Yes 65¢ $32 280d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-20? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 280d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $40 280d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 280d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $20 283d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $18 283d
Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $90 286d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records