Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:58:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7B 0x7b9e…3087 crypto 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$151 (-4%) realized −$151 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate79%54W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$165
other 2% −$1
tech 0% $0
world 0% −$2
sports 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 68 +2.6% -7.2% 79% 40% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 40% -14.0%
10% -16.0% 25% -22.3%
15% -24.2% 18% -29.8%
20% -31.6% 13% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$52 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses54 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage168d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Mar 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 18 $178 −$178 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 09 $63 −$20 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 09 $35 +$11 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 09 $20 +$14 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 09 $143 −$103 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 09 $60 +$63 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 09 $89 −$28 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 09 $78 +$11 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 09 $123 +$55 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 09 $80 +$43 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 09 $45 +$34 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 09 $38 +$7 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 09 $30 +$8 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 09 $10 +$20 +190%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 09 $6 +$4 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 09 $5 +$1 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 09 $78 −$73 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 09 $41 +$37 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 09 $165 −$124 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 09 $145 +$21 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 09 $134 +$11 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 09 $127 +$7 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 09 $74 +$9 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 09 $72 +$47 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on March 1? Mar 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2.5 Mar 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 39 and 41 million views on wee Feb 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on Feb Feb 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 26 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 22? Feb 24 $1 $0 +0%
Kings vs. Spurs Feb 22 $1 $0 +8%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Oman (Game 1) Feb 21 $1 $0 +3%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $195 on February 20? Feb 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released on February 19, 2026? Feb 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 Feb 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released on February 17, 2026? Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Feb 17 $26 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Feb 17 $26 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 17 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Feb 14 $48 −$47 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Feb 14 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Feb 14 $34 +$13 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Feb 14 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 14 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Feb 14 $27 +$3 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $25 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $17 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $17 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $46 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $46 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $35 103d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $20 103d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 103d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 103d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $20 103d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $123 103d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $60 103d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $61 103d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $80 103d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $9 103d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $78 103d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $178 103d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $123 103d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $80 103d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $45 103d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $38 103d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $30 103d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 103d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 103d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 103d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $5 103d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $78 103d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $41 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.91 · official $34.91 (match) · 152 history records