Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:14:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b9e…08f3 crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+3%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$206
other 4% +$9
sports 3% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -7.0% -15.9% 62% 50% -31.5%
≤30d 8 -7.0% -15.9% 62% 50% -31.5%
≤90d 8 -7.0% -15.9% 62% 50% -31.5%
all 8 -7.0% -15.9% 62% 50% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 50% -31.5%
10% -23.9% 50% -38.0%
15% -31.3% 38% -44.0%
20% -38.0% 38% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$118 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $256 −$250 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $206 +$132 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$13 +50%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $28 +$9 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 3h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 75¢ $28 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records