Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:50:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7B 0x7b97…8d88 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,535 (+41%) realized +$1,544 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate68%13W / 6L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$291now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$238
sports 41% +$1,235
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +44.9% +31.1% 68% 68% +32.1%
≤30d 19 +44.9% +31.1% 68% 68% +32.1%
≤90d 19 +44.9% +31.1% 68% 68% +32.1%
all 19 +44.9% +31.1% 68% 68% +32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.1% 68% +32.1%
10% +18.6% 63% +19.4%
15% +7.1% 58% +7.9%
20% -3.4% 58% -2.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +51% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$174 vs −$130 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.9 per $1 lost it wins $2.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$291
Realized+$1,544
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses13 / 6
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage7d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany leading at halftime? No 52¢ 50¢ $300 $291 −$9 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $154 −$150 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $307 +$248 +81%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $307 +$210 +69%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $308 +$292 +95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $308 −$300 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +103%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $307 +$270 +88%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $154 +$119 +78%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $508 +$556 +109%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $307 +$270 +88%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $103 +$154 +149%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$51 +489%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $463 −$241 -52%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$4 +22%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 +$10 +31%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$27 +52%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $102 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $102 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $102 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $103 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $103 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $103 27h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 27h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 27h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $102 28h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $102 28h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $102 28h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 42h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 42h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 42h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $102 44h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $102 44h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $102 44h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $508 47h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $103 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $102 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $102 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.35 · official $291.35 (match) · 67 history records