Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:40:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7B 0x7b96…2429 world 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$134 (+9%) realized +$141 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$683now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$29
politics 14% +$54
economics 8% +$15
other 4% −$2
sports 2% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +14.2% +3.3% 55% 45% +4.4%
≤30d 11 +14.2% +3.3% 55% 45% +4.4%
≤90d 11 +14.2% +3.3% 55% 45% +4.4%
all 11 +14.2% +3.3% 55% 45% +4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.3% 45% +4.4%
10% -6.5% 27% -5.6%
15% -15.6% 27% -14.7%
20% -23.8% 18% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$8 · ×3.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.23 per $1 lost it wins $4.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$683
Realized+$141
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)11 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 35¢ 40¢ $120 $135 +$15 (+13%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $120 $123 +$3 (+2%)
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Yes 98¢ 92¢ $120 $112 −$8 (-6%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 58¢ 57¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes $60 $41 −$19 (-31%)
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 93¢ 92¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 22 $61 +$40 +66%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $31 +$24 +78%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $61 +$12 +20%
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 19 $5 $0 -7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 19 $61 −$8 -14%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $61 −$15 -25%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 19 $61 −$15 -24%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $123 +$54 +44%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $242 +$32 +13%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? Jun 18 $61 +$4 +7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $61 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 1h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 1h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 1h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 2h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 13h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $30 13h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $31 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $30 17h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 35¢ $63 2d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 35¢ $63 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $61 2d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $52 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $45 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $46 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $63 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $61 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $61 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 72¢ $61 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 65¢ $178 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $61 3d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 60¢ $61 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $61 3d
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $65 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 50¢ $97 3d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 3d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 58¢ $62 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $60 3d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $682.67 · official $682.67 (match) · 45 history records