Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:09:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b95…5733 sports 463 markets active 7d ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (624 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$627 (-4%) realized −$627 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%224W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day623.5pace
Fees−$197est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$467
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (624 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -7.3% -16.1% 57% 45% -0.1%
≤30d 424 +9.5% -0.9% 53% 45% -6.4%
≤90d 424 +9.5% -0.9% 53% 45% -6.4%
all 424 +9.5% -0.9% 53% 45% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover623.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.9% 45% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -10.4% 36% -15.4%
15% -19.0% 27% -23.6%
20% -27.0% 22% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$18 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$627
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses224 / 200
Est. fees paid−$197
Open positions0
Markets (closed)424 / 463
History coverage4d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day623.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 424 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 10 $13 +$2 +13%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5) Jun 10 $32 −$32 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $65 −$58 -89%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $100 −$79 -79%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $234 +$28 +12%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $8 −$3 -37%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $139 +$114 +82%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $7 −$2 -28%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 10 $4 $0 +11%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Jun 10 $8 +$2 +24%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $7 +$3 +35%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $26 +$4 +16%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $78 +$5 +6%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $13 −$2 -13%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $20 +$2 +10%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 10 $5 $0 -4%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 10 $8 +$1 +9%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $12 +$3 +24%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $155 +$82 +53%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 10 $7 −$2 -28%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 10 $15 +$10 +69%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 10 $9 +$5 +54%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $9 +$6 +65%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 10 $15 +$7 +50%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $167 +$55 +33%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 10 $2 +$2 +97%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 10 $4 +$1 +12%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $6 −$1 -22%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $9 +$1 +16%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $20 −$15 -75%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $6 +$2 +28%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 10 $2 +$4 +191%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $4 $0 +3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $4 +$1 +36%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $27 +$6 +23%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 10 $8 −$3 -41%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 15.5 Jun 10 $13 −$8 -64%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 10 $17 −$12 -72%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5) Jun 10 $279 −$189 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) SELL Cincinnati Reds 99¢ $5 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 99¢ $6 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL Cincinnati Reds 99¢ $42 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL Cincinnati Reds 99¢ $2 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL Cincinnati Reds 99¢ $12 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL Cincinnati Reds 99¢ $14 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL Cincinnati Reds 99¢ $1 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL Cincinnati Reds 99¢ $5 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL Cincinnati Reds 99¢ $17 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL Cincinnati Reds 99¢ $26 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL Cincinnati Reds 99¢ $40 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL Cincinnati Reds 99¢ $96 6d
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) SELL Cincinnati Reds 99¢ $5 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 77¢ $4 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 63¢ $4 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $2 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $99 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $24 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $99 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $19 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 62¢ $4 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 47¢ $46 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 99¢ $5 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 99¢ $29 6d
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 77¢ $2 6d
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 77¢ $1 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 34¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3000 history records