Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:20:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7B 0x7b95…04bb sports 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,378 (-7%) realized −$1,377 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%72W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$454
14 days+$531
30 days+$950
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$1,967
other 4% +$545
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +97.7% +78.9% 71% 71% +65.8%
≤30d 28 +46.3% +32.4% 61% 61% +26.6%
≤90d 84 +9.2% -1.2% 56% 55% -4.2%
all 138 -3.7% -12.8% 52% 51% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 51% -16.5%
10% -21.2% 51% -24.5%
15% -28.8% 45% -31.8%
20% -35.8% 30% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$119 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$1,377
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses72 / 66
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage174d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 43¢ 42¢ $86 $85 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $129 +$71 +55%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $77 −$76 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $86 +$114 +133%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $37 +$163 +442%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $135 +$65 +48%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $65 +$135 +206%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $135 +$65 +48%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 18 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$149 +291%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $83 −$81 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $73 −$72 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $39 +$75 +192%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $90 +$110 +122%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $143 +$69 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $139 +$61 +44%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $123 −$122 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $93 −$92 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $70 −$70 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $45 −$44 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 07 $72 +$131 +180%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $75 +$125 +165%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $35 −$34 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $79 +$121 +152%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $93 +$107 +114%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $105 +$95 +90%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $117 −$116 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $119 +$81 +67%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $89 −$88 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $127 +$73 +57%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $115 +$85 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $91 −$90 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $113 −$112 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $109 −$108 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $65 −$64 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $67 −$66 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $67 +$133 +197%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $65 −$64 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 19 $75 +$125 +165%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 17 $102 −$2 -2%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $79 +$121 +152%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $94 −$92 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $247 +$53 +21%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $75 +$125 +165%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $49 −$48 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $131 +$69 +52%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $83 −$82 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $145 +$55 +38%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 06 $64 +$36 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $87 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $129 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $77 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 42¢ $86 2d
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY T1 Academy 34¢ $17 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $37 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 32¢ $65 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 67¢ $135 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 29¢ $59 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $51 10d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $83 11d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 36¢ $73 12d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $4 13d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $1 13d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $3 13d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $5 13d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $1 13d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $13 13d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $13 13d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $90 14d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $143 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $139 16d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 61¢ $123 17d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FULL SENSE 46¢ $93 18d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FUT Esports 35¢ $17 19d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FUT Esports 35¢ $1 19d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FUT Esports 35¢ $1 19d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FUT Esports 35¢ $18 19d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FUT Esports 35¢ $33 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.00 · official $85.00 (match) · 237 history records