Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:26:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7B 0x7b92…5032 crypto 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$80 (+9%) realized +$81 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$21
sports 23% +$37
crypto 13% +$14
politics 12% −$1
other 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 0% -4.0%
≤30d 8 +34.2% +21.4% 88% 50% -1.6%
≤90d 11 +17.6% +6.4% 82% 45% -1.4%
all 13 +14.4% +3.5% 69% 38% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 38% -1.5%
10% -6.4% 23% -10.9%
15% -15.5% 23% -19.5%
20% -23.7% 15% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$0 · ×29.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×66.32 per $1 lost it wins $66.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$81
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage145d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 81¢ 80¢ $115 $114 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $112 +$7 +6%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 17 $1 +$1 +57%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +46%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $4 +$6 +138%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $211 +$14 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 20 $264 +$7 +3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch May 14 $211 +$37 +18%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Feb 27 $2 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Feb 27 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 81¢ $116 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $118 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $1 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $1 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $112 7d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Spirit 63¢ $1 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $210 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 34d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 97¢ $262 42d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $248 42d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch BUY KT Rolster Challengers 85¢ $211 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 67¢ $3 50d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $1 50d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 91¢ $1 50d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 86¢ $1 50d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 86¢ $1 50d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 50d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 50d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 87¢ $1 50d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 87¢ $1 50d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $1 118d
StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $2 118d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day SELL No 92¢ $1 118d
StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $2 145d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day BUY No 98¢ $1 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.31 · official $114.31 (match) · 39 history records