Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7B 0x7b91…fb9d crypto 187 markets active 18h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,331 (-28%) realized −$1,311 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%51W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$217
14 days−$277
30 days−$1,797
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$806
world 11% −$334
sports 9% −$149
other 6% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -42.7% -48.1% 16% 12% -40.2%
≤30d 88 -71.6% -74.3% 9% 5% -77.4%
≤90d 88 -71.6% -74.3% 9% 5% -77.4%
all 183 -25.1% -32.3% 28% 25% -35.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 25% -35.7%
10% -38.8% 25% -41.9%
15% -44.7% 23% -47.5%
20% -50.1% 22% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -75% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$22 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$1,311
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses51 / 132
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)183 / 187
History coverage267d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $79 $83 +$4 (+5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-7%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $16 $1 −$15 (-94%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $6 $1 −$6 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Iraq to win the second half? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $19 +$62 +324%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 16 $20 −$14 -69%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $30 +$32 +106%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $31 +$82 +268%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 $0 -1%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$2 -8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $58 −$7 -12%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$5 -47%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $15 −$2 -17%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 09 $16 −$5 -29%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $21 −$2 -10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $58 −$52 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 5AM ET Jun 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 01 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 14¢ $11 17h
Iraq to win the second half? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 18h
Iraq to win the second half? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 18h
Iraq to win the second half? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $81 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $19 19h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $29 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 BUY Over 3¢ $10 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $10 20h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 4.5 Corners SELL Over 94¢ $6 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 94¢ $57 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 94¢ $6 21h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 21h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $30 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $30 21h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 33¢ $20 21h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $20 23h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $21 23h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $20 23h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $20 23h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 41h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 4.5 Corners SELL Over 94¢ $108 41h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 4.5 Corners SELL Over 94¢ $5 42h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 42h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 42h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 25¢ $31 43h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 22¢ $12 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $13 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.22 · official $110.22 (match) · 591 history records