Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7B 0x7b90…c1af crypto 1326 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 122d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$90 (-1%) realized −$132 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate75%975W / 328L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$840now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$58
14 days+$51
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$157
tech 14% +$63
other 5% +$69
world 0% −$18
politics 0% −$27
culture 0% −$5
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 +2.4% -7.4% 75% 41% -2.1%
≤30d 539 -1.7% -11.1% 81% 41% -6.4%
≤90d 689 -5.6% -14.6% 78% 37% -10.5%
all 1303 -6.4% -15.3% 75% 37% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 37% -10.7%
10% -23.4% 19% -19.2%
15% -30.8% 11% -27.1%
20% -37.6% 7% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$840
Realized−$132
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses975 / 328
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)1303 / 1326
History coverage122d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 1303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $367 $394 +$27 (+7%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 84¢ 88¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 57¢ 80¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+40%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 62¢ 91¢ $13 $18 +$6 (+48%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 57¢ 50¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 36¢ 33¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 53¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+131%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 122 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $14 −$10 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 29 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 28 $50 +$3 +6%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 28 $201 +$17 +8%
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 28 $2 $0 +12%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 $0 +16%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +70%
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $3 +$9 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$5 +93%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 31m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 31m
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Brazil to score first vs. Japan? AND Wil BUY 39¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 45m
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 90¢ $55 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July BUY Yes 92¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 5h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06- BUY 19¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $839.60 · official $846.34 (match) · 3500 history records