Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:34:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7B 0x7b90…546d other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$53 (-10%) realized −$25 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$28
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$41
world 31% −$53
crypto 15% +$13
sports 6% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -8.6% -17.3% 50% 50% +7.7%
≤30d 4 -8.6% -17.3% 50% 50% +7.7%
≤90d 4 -8.6% -17.3% 50% 50% +7.7%
all 17 +15.3% +4.3% 35% 35% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 35% -12.8%
10% -5.7% 35% -21.2%
15% -14.8% 29% -28.8%
20% -23.2% 24% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +98% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$20 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage165d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 61¢ 43¢ $98 $70 −$28 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $22 −$21 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $23 −$22 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Jun 23 $33 +$39 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $72 +$33 +46%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 07 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 15? Jan 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 15? Jan 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 14? Jan 14 $12 −$11 -92%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-13? Jan 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 13? Jan 13 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by January 31? Jan 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026? Jan 13 $25 +$77 +303%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 12? Jan 12 $5 +$33 +668%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 12? Jan 12 $14 −$10 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 11AM ET Jan 12 $13 −$1 -6%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? Jan 12 $21 +$7 +35%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 17¢ $22 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $23 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND BUY 43¢ $17 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND BUY 47¢ $15 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $72 3d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $68 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 161d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 14? SELL Down 1¢ $1 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 14? BUY Down 12¢ $12 162d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 163d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 163d
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 13? SELL Up 100¢ $31 163d
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by January 31? BUY No 13¢ $7 163d
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 13? BUY Up 64¢ $20 163d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $102 163d
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by January 31? BUY No 15¢ $5 163d
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by January 31? BUY No 21¢ $50 163d
Ethereum Up or Down on January 12? SELL Up 100¢ $38 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 12? SELL Down 19¢ $4 164d
Ethereum Up or Down on January 12? BUY Up 13¢ $5 164d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 11AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $12 164d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 11AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $13 164d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $10 164d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $5 164d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $10 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 12? BUY Down 66¢ $14 164d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.17 · official $69.20 (match) · 34 history records