Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b8d…dd25 sports 256 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%19W / 236L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$4
other 23% −$4
politics 19% −$3
economics 7% $0
world 7% −$1
crypto 7% −$1
culture 6% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 3 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.5%
all 255 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses19 / 236
Open positions1
Markets (closed)255 / 256
History coverage169d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $45 $0 -1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 29 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $33 $0 -1%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 24 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 24 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 23 $228 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $137 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $243 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $203 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $270 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $69 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $251 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 23 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $179 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 23 $323 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $67 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $205 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $115 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $152 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $336 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 23 $109 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $62 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $153 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 23 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $72 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 23 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 23 $106 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $58 $0 -0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 22 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 58m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $23 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $24 11d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $32 19d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $33 19d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $33 32d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $33 32d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $34 113d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 97¢ $34 113d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $28 113d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $28 113d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $29 113d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 97¢ $29 113d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $17 113d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 93¢ $18 113d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $17 113d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 93¢ $9 113d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 93¢ $28 113d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 113d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 113d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $35 113d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $35 113d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $30 113d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 97¢ $30 113d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $4 113d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $28 113d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $4 113d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $28 113d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 93¢ $29 113d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 93¢ $29 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.57 · official $31.57 (match) · 1050 history records