Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b8a…e0f7 crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$95 (-3%) realized −$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate43%25W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$64
14 days+$64
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$188
sports 25% +$64
economics 17% +$35
other 10% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +9.9% -0.5% 92% 38% -2.9%
≤30d 13 +9.9% -0.5% 92% 38% -2.9%
≤90d 13 +9.9% -0.5% 92% 38% -2.9%
all 58 -41.6% -47.1% 43% 24% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.1% 24% -11.9%
10% -52.2% 12% -20.3%
15% -56.8% 10% -28.0%
20% -61.0% 10% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$18 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses25 / 33
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage220d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $9 +$2 +20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $112 +$9 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $81 +$10 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $102 +$9 +8%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $96 +$6 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $75 +$22 +29%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $72 +$2 +3%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $48 +$25 +52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $87 −$39 -45%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $76 +$11 +15%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $14 +$1 +9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $69 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 14 $50 +$67 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 14 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 14 $200 +$34 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 07 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 07 $184 −$2 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Mar 07 $45 −$45 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 5? Mar 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 2-8? Mar 04 $231 +$3 +1%
Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 02 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Mar 02 $231 +$40 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Feb 27 $86 −$84 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 26 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Feb 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Feb 25 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Feb 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 24 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Feb 23 $145 +$171 +118%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Feb 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 22 $195 +$10 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8AM ET Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Feb 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 22 $16 +$15 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Feb 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 95¢ $59 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 83¢ $9 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 88¢ $7 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 90¢ $36 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 90¢ $10 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 90¢ $13 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 90¢ $29 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 88¢ $39 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 97¢ $23 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 96¢ $7 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $111 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $102 5h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $102 30h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $96 30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $97 31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $75 32h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $74 33h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $72 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $72 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $48 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 51¢ $48 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $87 40h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $87 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $76 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 92¢ $14 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $75 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 92¢ $69 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $50 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $20 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $30 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records