Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:56:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b89…cb19 sports 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$91 (-14%) realized −$89 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%29W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$37
14 days−$36
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$93
politics 7% −$2
other 3% +$3
crypto 2% −$5
economics 2% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +19.5% +8.1% 43% 35% +3.1%
≤30d 93 -8.6% -17.3% 31% 25% -22.4%
≤90d 93 -8.6% -17.3% 31% 25% -22.4%
all 93 -8.6% -17.3% 31% 25% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 25% -22.4%
10% -25.2% 24% -29.9%
15% -32.4% 24% -36.6%
20% -39.0% 20% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$89
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses29 / 64
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions7
Markets (closed)93 / 100
History coverage20d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 16¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Marta Kostyuk 54¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Akasha Urhobo vs Katie Boulter Akasha Urhobo 13¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Perugia: Liam Broady vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Liam Broady 23¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Emma Navarro $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets New York Mets 28¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Matteo Berrettini 47¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox Minnesota Twins 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Chicago Cubs 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Jesper de Jong Federico Cina 13¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers St. Louis Cardinals $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Felix Auger-Aliassime 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Jaume Munar vs Hubert Hurkacz Jaume Munar 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Emilio Nava vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Emilio Nava 28¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Perugia: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Timofey Skatov Chun-Hsin Tseng 38¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$21 +413%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -7%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $5 −$4 -99%
Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parli Jun 12 $46 −$2 -5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $52 −$3 -5%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $4 −$2 -42%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $8 +$4 +52%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $6 +$6 +104%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 10 $2 +$2 +106%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $4 $0 -3%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $2 $0 -7%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $4 $0 +1%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $4 $0 -2%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $19 +$21 +113%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $21 +$9 +43%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $19 −$18 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $20 +$9 +45%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $22 −$10 -47%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $10 −$3 -33%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 $0 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $7 +$9 +117%
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Rob Font next? Jun 07 $7 $0 +6%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $16 −$16 -99%
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan Jun 04 $31 −$11 -35%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $7 +$12 +178%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $2 +$2 +76%
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) Jun 04 $4 +$6 +133%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $3 $0 -2%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $5 +$5 +114%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $6 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $2 +$1 +74%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $4 $0 -2%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $2 $0 -2%
Perugia: Liam Broady vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Perugia: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Timofey Skatov Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Johannus Monday Jun 03 $2 +$4 +194%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $64 −$58 -92%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $3 −$1 -24%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $0 $0 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $10 +$4 +40%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $7 −$5 -63%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $2 $0 -6%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 02 $4 $0 -2%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Ricky Simón next? Jun 01 $4 −$1 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 37m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $5 38m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 81¢ $20 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2h
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 21¢ $11 8h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 22¢ $11 16h
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic BUY Katie Boulter 28¢ $2 32h
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic BUY Katie Boulter 56¢ $3 33h
Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parli SELL Yes 24¢ $11 47h
Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parli SELL No 74¢ $33 47h
Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parli BUY Yes 26¢ $12 2d
Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parli BUY No 75¢ $34 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 21¢ $49 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 16¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.28 · official $10.28 (match) · 312 history records