Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:57:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b85…579e politics 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%4W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$2
sports 21% −$1
other 19% +$4
crypto 13% −$2
culture 5% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.2% -8.5% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 3 +0.7% -8.8% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 4 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -9.1%
all 43 -7.6% -16.4% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -24.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -31.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses4 / 39
Open positions3
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage225d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+29%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $135 $0 -0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $57 +$1 +2%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $77 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $76 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $76 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $76 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $151 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $74 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 19? Jan 19 $75 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 15 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 13 $75 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $79 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 06 $152 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $2 $0 -17%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 31 $73 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $74 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 28 $2 $0 -11%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 28 $1 $0 -50%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 28 $148 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 26 $2 −$1 -49%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $2 $0 -17%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $75 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 23 $1 $0 -50%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $72 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 22 $75 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 20 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $79 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 14 $81 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 10 $81 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 06 $83 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 04 $82 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 01 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 29 $82 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 27 $80 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $82 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 24 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 24 $1 $0 -33%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 22 $81 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 16 $81 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 14 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 12 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 08 $83 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $60 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $60 36h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $14 36h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $57 5d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 8d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 20d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $77 20d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $77 25d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $76 42d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $76 105d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $76 107d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $76 139d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 141d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $76 143d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $76 145d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $76 147d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $73 148d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 149d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $76 150d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $76 151d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $75 153d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $76 153d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $76 156d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $74 156d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $75 157d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $75 159d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $75 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.15 · official $21.15 (match) · 262 history records