Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:03:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b85…07ba crypto 106 markets active 2d ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$368 (-3%) realized −$368 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%50W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$92
14 days−$92
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$683
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +76.4% +59.6% 50% 48% -11.4%
≤30d 56 +76.4% +59.6% 50% 48% -11.4%
≤90d 106 +33.7% +20.9% 47% 43% -15.9%
all 106 +33.7% +20.9% 47% 43% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.9% 43% -15.9%
10% +9.4% 37% -23.9%
15% -1.2% 29% -31.3%
20% -10.9% 23% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +83% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$40 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$368
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses50 / 56
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage76d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $200 −$17 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$50 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $107 −$48 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $107 −$44 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $107 −$37 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $112 +$55 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $111 +$63 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $108 −$52 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $108 −$37 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $110 +$72 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$12 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $107 −$43 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $109 −$41 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $252 +$108 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $250 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $101 −$47 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $125 +$37 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $179 +$24 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$36 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$45 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $176 +$27 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $98 −$31 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $96 +$27 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $110 +$28 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$47 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$60 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $119 +$25 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $120 +$28 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $86 +$51 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $125 +$21 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $86 −$39 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $125 +$93 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $83 −$36 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $77 −$39 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $159 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $81 −$29 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 14 $86 +$60 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 14 $115 +$26 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $87 +$50 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $152 +$28 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $84 −$41 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $84 −$37 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $254 −$36 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$46 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $87 +$81 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $79 −$59 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $102 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $98 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $53 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $104 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $60 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $99 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $63 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $99 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $53 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $17 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $102 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $150 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $56 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $98 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $72 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $105 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $182 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1239 history records