Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b83…69f7 sports 211 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%27W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$5
other 23% −$3
politics 21% −$3
crypto 11% $0
economics 8% −$1
culture 4% −$1
world 4% +$1
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 24% 0% -9.7%
all 211 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses27 / 184
Open positions0
Markets (closed)211 / 211
History coverage169d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 211 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $49 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $43 $0 +1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $93 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $192 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $152 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 23 $199 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 22 $116 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 22 $239 $0 -0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 22 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $49 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 21 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 21 $77 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 20 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 19 $38 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 18 $101 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 18 $183 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 17 $43 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $93 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $122 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 15 $75 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 14 $151 −$1 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 14 $85 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 12 $80 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $87 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $140 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 09 $49 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $46 $0 +0%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 08 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $189 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 07 $65 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 06 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 04 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 04 $49 $0 -1%
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $42 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $84 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $49 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $43 14d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $45 25d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $45 25d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $38 33d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $38 33d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $44 85d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $44 85d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $48 85d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $48 86d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $45 86d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $45 87d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $44 87d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $44 87d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $45 87d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $45 87d
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 98¢ $48 87d
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $48 88d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? SELL No 97¢ $42 88d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $41 88d
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $49 88d
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $49 88d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $48 88d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 98¢ $48 88d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 96¢ $36 88d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 96¢ $36 89d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 94¢ $37 89d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 95¢ $26 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 797 history records