Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:31:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b82…8d9f other 194 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$124 (-5%) realized −$61 · open −$63
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate94%112W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$859now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$4
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% +$4
other 29% −$147
world 13% +$17
tech 6% −$1
weather 6% +$1
economics 5% +$1
finance 4% −$1
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -2.3% -11.6% 97% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 113 -1.0% -10.5% 96% 2% -11.6%
≤90d 116 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 3% -11.4%
all 119 -2.9% -12.2% 94% 3% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 3% -13.2%
10% -20.6% 3% -21.5%
15% -28.2% 3% -29.1%
20% -35.3% 1% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$13 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$859
Realized−$61
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses112 / 7
Open positions75
Markets (closed)119 / 194
History coverage163d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 75 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dan Goldman be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? No 98¢ 99¢ $77 $77 +$1 (+1%)
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 98¢ 100¢ $76 $77 +$1 (+1%)
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 98¢ 92¢ $34 $32 −$2 (-7%)
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 98¢ 94¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will James Osyf be the Democratic nominee for VA-02? No 99¢ 97¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Will Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Michael Blake be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? No 98¢ 99¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jeff Hurd be the Republican nominee for CO-03? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Waymo operate in 12 or more cities on June 30 2026? No 98¢ 96¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Steve Hershey win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (EZEMA) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election? No 99¢ 98¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Noam Chomsky be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 98¢ 99¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Quincy Bareebe be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? No 98¢ 94¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Toronto Marlies win American Hockey League? Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Will Lord Peter Mandelson Testify to Congress about Epstein? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Karrigan retire by June 30? Jun 19 $24 $0 +1%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bruce Blakeman win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary Jun 19 $8 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $56 on the final trading day of June 2 Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee Jun 17 $7 $0 +1%
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $65 +$1 +1%
Will Kathy Hochul win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Prima Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary el Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Gedeo People’s Democratic Party (GPDP) win the most seats in Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 15 $17 $0 +1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Will Chicago Wolves win American Hockey League? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 13 $22 $0 +1%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will Dan Rooney be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 11 $12 $0 +2%
Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 10 $27 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting Jun 10 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash ra Jun 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will Rudy Salas advance from the CA-22 Primary? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will David Valadao advance from the CA-22 Primary? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary Jun 09 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prim Jun 09 $11 $0 +1%
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary elec Jun 09 $9 $0 +1%
Will Jay Byars be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 1h
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 1h
Will Toronto Marlies win American Hockey League? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 8h
Will Lord Peter Mandelson Testify to Congress about Epstein? SELL No 100¢ $5 10h
Will Karrigan retire by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $23 11h
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $5 14h
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $5 15h
No one announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 98¢ $34 23h
Will Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026? BUY No 98¢ $21 26h
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas by June 30 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 39h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 39h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $5 39h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $56 on the final trading day of June 2 SELL Yes 99¢ $30 41h
MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 43h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 43h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Will Bryson DeChambeau leave LIV Golf by June 30th? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 2d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Martin Kaymer leave LIV Golf by June 30th? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 2d
Will Josele Ballester leave LIV Golf by June 30th? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 2d
Will Dustin Johnson leave LIV Golf by June 30th? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 2d
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 2d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 2d
Will Tyrrell Hatton leave LIV Golf by June 30th? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 2d
Will Ian Poulter leave LIV Golf by June 30th? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 2d
Will Branden Grace leave LIV Golf by June 30th? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 2d
Will Richard Bland leave LIV Golf by June 30th? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 2d
Will Thomas Pieters leave LIV Golf by June 30th? BUY Yes 98¢ $9 2d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $859.47 · official $859.47 (match) · 381 history records