Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b80…7e98 crypto 346 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$194 (-10%) realized −$194 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate31%106W / 240L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$48
14 days−$48
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$190
world 4% −$58
other 2% +$2
tech 1% −$18
sports 1% −$5
finance 0% −$1
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -20.1% -27.7% 30% 18% -17.7%
≤30d 127 -26.4% -33.4% 28% 18% -20.3%
≤90d 335 -19.5% -27.2% 31% 23% -23.2%
all 346 -19.6% -27.3% 31% 23% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 23% -23.3%
10% -34.2% 19% -30.6%
15% -40.6% 14% -37.3%
20% -46.4% 11% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$194
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses106 / 240
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)346 / 346
History coverage101d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 346 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$5 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$5 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$7 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $1 $0 -25%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 -15%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $33 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$33 +267%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $7 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2072 history records