Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7B 0x7b7d…9f56 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$300 (+181%) realized +$300 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +469% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +415% what you keep after slip
Net edge+415%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% $0
politics 38% +$298
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+415.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +469.3% +415.1% 100% 100% +415.1%
≤90d 1 +469.3% +415.1% 100% 100% +415.1%
all 1 +469.3% +415.1% 100% 100% +415.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +415.1% 100% +415.1%
10% +365.8% 100% +365.8%
15% +320.8% 100% +320.8%
20% +279.6% 100% +279.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +469% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +469% · $-wt +469% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$298 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$300
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1 / 3
History coverage16d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $64 +$298 +469%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 17¢ $64 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.65 · official $99.65 (match) · 4 history records