Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7B
0x7b7c…ec19
politics · 135 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$8 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 126
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage107d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 1 History 134 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Nets vs. Lakers Nets 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Suns Hornets 62¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Nets vs. Trail Blazers Nets 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Hawks Celtics 44¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Warriors Wizards 12¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Trail Blazers Pacers 23¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Nets vs. Warriors Nets 16¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Rockets Knicks 51¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $4 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $4 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $85 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $79 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $119 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $112 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $34 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $32 $0 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $78 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $37 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $76 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $48 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $38 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $43 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $78 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $39 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $150 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 24 $47 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $125 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $120 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $70 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% −$3
politics 37% −$3
sports 9% −$3
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $4 8h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $4 11h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $7 11h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $7 18h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $6 3d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $6 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $5 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $7 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $4 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $4 15d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $4 15d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $4 15d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 19d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 20d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 22d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 23d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 23d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 23d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 24d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 24d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 24d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $40 24d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $40 25d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 126 -2.8% -12.1% 5% 4% -9.5%
all 134 -3.7% -12.9% 6% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 4% -9.7%
10% -21.2% 3% -18.3%
15% -28.8% 3% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.00 · official $8.00 (match) · 374 history records