Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:50:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b76…3a40 crypto 565 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$110 (+1%) realized +$120 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%284W / 279L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$292
7 days−$73
14 days−$142
30 days−$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$31
weather 5% −$2
other 3% −$215
world 1% −$103
sports 0% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +10.3% -0.2% 40% 37% -15.8%
≤30d 186 -12.4% -20.8% 48% 44% -17.3%
≤90d 338 -9.3% -17.9% 48% 43% -18.3%
all 563 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 43% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 43% -11.1%
10% -25.2% 37% -19.6%
15% -32.4% 30% -27.4%
20% -39.0% 23% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$120
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses284 / 279
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)563 / 565
History coverage124d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 563 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $96 $82 −$14 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Yes 75¢ 90¢ $24 $29 +$5 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 187 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $109 −$85 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 −$19 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$19 -95%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $133 −$130 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$47 +1519%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$5 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $133 +$116 +87%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $130 +$159 +122%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $14 +$5 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET Jun 10 $24 +$8 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$26 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $61 −$60 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $29 −$28 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $23 +$16 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 3PM ET Jun 08 $15 −$1 -7%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$4 +64%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 1PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$10 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 08 $9 −$9 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $7 +$6 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $11 +$12 +108%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $9 +$6 +67%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 9PM ET Jun 07 $9 −$9 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 07 $9 +$3 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 8PM ET Jun 07 $20 −$9 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 06 $10 +$4 +41%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 6PM ET Jun 06 $7 +$2 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +77%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 4PM ET Jun 06 $6 +$5 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 2PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$4 -36%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$8 +181%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 75¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $109 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 71¢ $51 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $23 25h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 34h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 35h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 59¢ $133 36h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 38h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 39h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 40h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $14 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $249 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 52¢ $133 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $22 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? SELL Yes 99¢ $289 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? BUY Yes 43¢ $27 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? BUY Yes 43¢ $103 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $0 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $6 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $13 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $32 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $24 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.49 · official $110.49 (match) · 1135 history records