Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:35:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7B
0x7b75…3fd1
sports · 177 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$97,695 +26%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6,516 · open −$11,515
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$53,010
Realized+$6,516
Unrealized−$11,515
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses93 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$1,609
Open positions50
Markets (closed)161 / 177
History coverage31d
Avg bet$2,156
Trades / day105.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 50 History 161 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,187
7 days−$271
14 days+$1,867
30 days+$5,945
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 77¢ $17,500 $26,862 +$9,362 (+54%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $9,352 $9,548 +$196 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 23¢ $17,500 $8,138 −$9,362 (-54%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,285 $3,284 −$2 (-0%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $1,885 $1,895 +$10 (+1%)
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 97¢ $900 $970 +$70 (+8%)
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $554 $562 +$8 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 73¢ 95¢ $365 $476 +$112 (+31%)
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? No 80¢ 94¢ $365 $428 +$63 (+17%)
Eric Adams charged by December 31? No 64¢ 72¢ $314 $356 +$42 (+13%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 6¢ 22¢ $40 $144 +$104 (+257%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $91 $97 +$6 (+7%)
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 57¢ 86¢ $41 $62 +$21 (+51%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+4%)
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? No 33¢ 99¢ $9 $28 +$19 (+200%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $35 $14 −$21 (-60%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+25%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? No 84¢ 99¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $119 $4 −$116 (-97%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $106 $3 −$104 (-98%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $106 $3 −$104 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $106 $3 −$104 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $106 $3 −$104 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $106 $3 −$104 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $210 +$228 +108%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $157 −$136 -86%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $367 +$15 +4%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $275 +$225 +82%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $144 −$142 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $629 +$43 +7%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $418 −$15 -4%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $842 −$133 -16%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $548 −$475 -87%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $113 +$37 +33%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $66 +$34 +52%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $84 +$76 +90%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6,107 +$1,373 +22%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3,982 −$1,862 -47%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $98 +$2 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Parag Jun 12 $5 −$3 -60%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $325 +$13 +4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $11,083 −$2,532 -23%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $412 −$243 -59%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $58 +$40 +70%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $251 +$106 +42%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $280 +$212 +76%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $61 +$18 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $943 −$62 -7%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $29 +$28 +97%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $23 −$5 -23%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $253 +$29 +12%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $1,000 +$11 +1%
Will Reppo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? Jun 11 $1,797 +$55 +3%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $3,299 +$1 +0%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $653 +$96 +15%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $156 +$21 +14%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1,470 −$467 -32%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $752 −$284 -38%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $2,909 +$1,152 +40%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $240 +$9 +4%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $31 −$3 -10%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $71 −$11 -16%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $64 −$19 -29%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $122 −$113 -92%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $20 +$16 +78%
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $205 +$18 +8%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1490+? Jun 11 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,394 +$667 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 38% −$11,997
sports 25% +$9,677
crypto 24% +$419
other 6% −$1,951
tech 4% −$353
world 4% −$793
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 90¢ $180 23m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 65¢ $28 24m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 30¢ $210 26m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 35¢ $19 26m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 35¢ $1 26m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 21¢ $67 29m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 21¢ $21 29m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 21¢ $6 29m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 21¢ $8 29m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 21¢ $98 29m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 21¢ $10 29m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 39¢ $98 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 47¢ $118 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 75¢ $562 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 56¢ $140 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 60¢ $102 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 60¢ $0 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 60¢ $48 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 63¢ $158 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 1¢ $5 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 1¢ $0 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 1¢ $1 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 1¢ $0 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 1¢ $15 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 2¢ $4 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 2¢ $20 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 9¢ $0 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 9¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +45.0% +31.2% 59% 39% -9.6%
≤30d 152 +59.0% +43.9% 57% 35% -9.7%
≤90d 161 +54.7% +40.0% 58% 35% -9.5%
all 161 +54.7% +40.0% 58% 35% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover105.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +40.0% 35% -9.5%
10% +26.6% 26% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here +14.4% 20% -26.1%
20% +3.1% 16% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53,009.99 · official $53,010.01 (match) · 3500 history records