Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:43:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7B 0x7b73…4218 sports 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$430 (-13%) realized −$320 · open −$110
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$340now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$54
14 days+$34
30 days−$264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$7
other 23% −$441
sports 13% +$56
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +48.5% +34.3% 80% 80% +12.4%
≤30d 9 -6.4% -15.3% 56% 44% -31.6%
≤90d 9 -6.4% -15.3% 56% 44% -31.6%
all 17 -13.0% -21.3% 65% 29% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 29% -17.9%
10% -28.8% 24% -25.8%
15% -35.7% 18% -32.9%
20% -42.0% 18% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$71 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$340
Realized−$320
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage240d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $400 $309 −$91 (-23%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe Yamal 41¢ 26¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $101 +$70 +69%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 +$9 +86%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$7 +14%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 3? May 30 $538 +$2 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $305 −$300 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 1? Feb 03 $537 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 30? Feb 01 $535 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 14? Jan 29 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $513 +$1 +0%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $140 +$47 +33%
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26? Nov 01 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe BUY Yamal 40¢ $10 7m
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe BUY Yamal 40¢ $10 7m
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe BUY Yamal 40¢ $10 7m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 96¢ $172 13m
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe BUY Yamal 40¢ $10 23m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $101 4h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $10 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 4d
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe BUY Yamal 46¢ $10 6d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $50 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $10 10d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $10 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $305 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 3? BUY No 100¢ $538 138d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 1? BUY No 100¢ $537 140d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 30? BUY No 100¢ $535 142d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $513 144d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 219d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 37¢ $20 224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 37¢ $5 224d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 16¢ $10 231d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 25¢ $20 231d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 52¢ $69 232d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 15¢ $20 232d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $340.34 · official $340.34 (match) · 59 history records