Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:56:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7B 0x7b71…cbc0 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$105 (+17%) realized +$104 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$94
14 days+$81
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$7
other 22% +$41
crypto 9% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +24.4% +12.6% 75% 75% +10.5%
≤30d 15 +8.4% -2.0% 67% 67% +5.2%
≤90d 15 +8.4% -2.0% 67% 67% +5.2%
all 15 +8.4% -2.0% 67% 67% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 67% +5.2%
10% -11.3% 67% -4.9%
15% -19.9% 47% -14.1%
20% -27.8% 40% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$27 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage191d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 41¢ 42¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 75¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 94¢ 97¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $42 +$18 +42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $53 +$34 +64%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 +$13 +64%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $52 +$15 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $32 +$16 +51%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $26 +$26 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $31 +$9 +27%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $32 +$40 +125%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $32 +$30 +93%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $42 +$14 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $31 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 41¢ $32 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $42 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $53 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 35h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $52 47h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $32 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $42 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 48¢ $26 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $31 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $32 4d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $32 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $32 7d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 74¢ $21 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $42 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $6 8d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 94¢ $20 190d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.97 · official $110.97 (match) · 34 history records