Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7B 0x7b70…7d93 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$73 (-14%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$72
other 18% −$1
politics 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 35 -5.1% -14.1% 0% 0% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 0% -22.6%
10% -22.3% 0% -30.0%
15% -29.8% 0% -36.8%
20% -36.7% 0% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage552d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Jets win the AFC Championship? Aug 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $1 −$1 -75%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Dinamo Zagreb win the UEFA Champions League? Jul 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $0 $0 +0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 22 $14 $0 -0%
Pistons vs. Knicks Apr 20 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Torino win the Serie A? Mar 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will another team win the Serie A? Feb 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 20 $0 $0 +0%
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? Dec 13 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 11 $193 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Salzburg win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 11 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 1h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 23d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 23d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 52d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 52d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 79d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 79d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $8 92d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $8 92d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 115d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 115d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 142d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $8 142d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 178d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 178d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 99¢ $9 204d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 99¢ $9 204d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 232d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $9 232d
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 262d
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 262d
Will the Jets win the AFC Championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 305d
Will the Jets win the AFC Championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 305d
Will the Jets win the AFC Championship? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 305d
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $6 307d
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $6 307d
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 330d
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 330d
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 337d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records