Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7B 0x7b6e…be94 crypto 223 markets active 2h ago coverage 538d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$138 (+0%) realized +$139 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%220W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$590now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$16
14 days+$25
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$122
tech 1% +$1
economics 0% +$3
politics 0% +$4
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 23 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 65 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 221 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$526) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×28.87 per $1 lost it wins $28.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

538d coverage
Net worth$590
Realized+$139
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses220 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)221 / 223
History coverage538d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $589 $588 −$1 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $586 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $584 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $581 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $577 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $576 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $573 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $569 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $568 +$2 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $567 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $564 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $565 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $565 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $561 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $561 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $559 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $558 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $557 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $555 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $554 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 30 $553 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 27 $550 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $548 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? May 23 $548 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 21 $546 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? May 19 $546 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 17 $546 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 13? May 15 $544 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 12 $544 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 10? May 11 $544 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? May 09 $543 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 07 $543 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 06 $542 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 3? May 04 $542 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? May 02 $540 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $541 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $539 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24? Apr 26 $538 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $538 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $537 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $536 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $536 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $535 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $534 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $535 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $534 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $533 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $533 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $532 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $532 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $589 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $586 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $584 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $581 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $577 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $576 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $573 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $569 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $568 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 100¢ $567 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $564 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $565 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $565 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $561 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $561 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $560 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $559 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $558 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $557 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $555 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $554 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $553 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $550 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $548 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $548 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $546 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $546 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $546 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $544 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $589.51 · official $589.51 (match) · 453 history records