Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:55:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b6d…b23c world 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% −$3
other 12% $0
sports 3% +$3
politics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -6.1% -15.1% 0% 0% -15.1%
≤30d 17 -0.8% -10.2% 29% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 17 -0.8% -10.2% 29% 0% -10.1%
all 30 -2.0% -11.3% 33% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 7% -9.5%
10% -19.8% 3% -18.1%
15% -27.6% 3% -26.0%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage489d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $37 −$2 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $35 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $45 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $45 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 +1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $4 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $42 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $16 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $83 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $88 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $8 +$1 +12%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Aus May 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $11 $0 -1%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 12 $12 $0 +0%
New Hampshire vs. Binghamton Mar 04 $8 +$3 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $34 11m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $37 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $16 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $17 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $35 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $46 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $46 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $14 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $14 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $46 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $45 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $41 12d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 13d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 13d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $29 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $13 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $7 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $35 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records