Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:59:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7B 0x7b6c…98ba sports 316 markets active 2h ago coverage 640d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,179 (-5%) realized −$2,212 · open +$33
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate55%172W / 142L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$91
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$1,790
other 22% −$488
crypto 3% +$16
politics 1% +$96
finance 1% −$61
culture 1% −$38
world 0% +$109
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 18 +29.7% +17.4% 61% 28% -11.7%
≤90d 49 -12.7% -21.0% 59% 27% -10.9%
all 314 -9.0% -17.6% 55% 23% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 23% -13.9%
10% -25.5% 9% -22.2%
15% -32.7% 5% -29.7%
20% -39.3% 4% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$37 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

640d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized−$2,212
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses172 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)314 / 316
History coverage640d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 314 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 Over 86¢ 100¢ $200 $233 +$33 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $326 −$40 -12%
Will Nicolás Otamendi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $6 +$5 +81%
Will Ibrahima Konaté be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $6 +$27 +486%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Memphis Depay be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $129 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 −$26 -97%
Will Warren Zaïre-Emery be in France's Starting 11? Jun 13 $27 +$135 +497%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $185 +$2 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $172 +$14 +8%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $166 +$6 +3%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $158 +$8 +5%
Spread: Knicks (-15.5) Jun 06 $101 +$6 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $10 +$3 +32%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $74 −$74 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $6 −$5 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 02 $62 +$17 +27%
Set Handicap: Chwalinska (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) Jun 01 $107 −$106 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev May 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek May 13 $167 +$10 +6%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Caty McNally vs Iga Swiatek May 13 $151 +$16 +11%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Leolia Jeanjean May 07 $128 +$18 +14%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 07 $124 +$9 +7%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $6 −$6 -97%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Benjamin Bonzi Apr 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $13 −$13 -97%
FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5 Apr 22 $109 −$109 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 1.5 Apr 22 $112 +$11 +10%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $222 +$17 +8%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 19 $12 −$11 -97%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 16 $125 +$22 +18%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 15 $111 +$15 +13%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Apr 11 $203 +$2 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Sinner Apr 11 $30 $0 +0%
Mavericks vs. Spurs Apr 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5 Apr 11 $104 +$11 +11%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Apr 10 $366 +$3 +1%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Alexander Zverev Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas Etcheverry Apr 10 $45 −$45 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Fabian Ruiz: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 09 $245 +$1 +0%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5 Apr 08 $135 +$15 +11%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez Apr 07 $235 $0 +0%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Gael Monfils vs Tallon Griekspoor Apr 05 $89 +$11 +12%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 04 $110 +$15 +13%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 men's singles tournament at the Miami Mar 30 $195 +$14 +7%
Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Mar 27 $5 −$1 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $201 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 A BUY 34¢ $11 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $105 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $112 9d
Will Ibrahima Konaté be in France's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 10d
Will Ibrahima Konaté be in France's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $10 10d
Will Ibrahima Konaté be in France's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $3 10d
Will Ibrahima Konaté be in France's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 10d
Will Ibrahima Konaté be in France's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 10d
Will Ibrahima Konaté be in France's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 10d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $6 10d
Will Nicolás Otamendi be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 55¢ $6 10d
Will Memphis Depay be in Netherlands's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $25 11d
Will Memphis Depay be in Netherlands's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $55 11d
Will Memphis Depay be in Netherlands's Starting 11? SELL No 100¢ $50 11d
Will Memphis Depay be in Netherlands's Starting 11? BUY No 100¢ $129 12d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Ibrahima Konaté be in France's Starting 11? BUY No 17¢ $4 12d
Will Ibrahima Konaté be in France's Starting 11? BUY No 16¢ $2 12d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $25 12d
Will Warren Zaïre-Emery be in France's Starting 11? SELL No 90¢ $162 12d
Will Warren Zaïre-Emery be in France's Starting 11? BUY No 15¢ $18 13d
Will Warren Zaïre-Emery be in France's Starting 11? BUY No 14¢ $9 13d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $187 14d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $185 14d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $187 14d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $172 15d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 97¢ $166 18d
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.88 · official $232.88 (match) · 1097 history records