Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:57:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7B 0x7b6c…3f80 other 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate44%45W / 58L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$24
14 days−$12
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$7
other 25% +$16
politics 17% −$40
sports 16% +$6
tech 1% −$2
finance 1% −$4
crypto 1% +$1
weather 0% +$2
economics 0% −$4
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -2.2% -11.6% 36% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 33 -0.8% -10.2% 36% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 46 -1.1% -10.5% 35% 2% -9.9%
all 103 -1.0% -10.4% 44% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 5% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 1% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses45 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage476d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 47¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $235 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $423 −$30 -7%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $162 +$2 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $505 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $167 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $153 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $155 +$14 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $134 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $48 −$10 -21%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $149 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $314 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $85 +$2 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $161 +$7 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $131 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $146 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $193 +$3 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $265 −$1 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $141 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $147 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $309 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $146 −$4 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $146 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $50 +$2 +4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $2 $0 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $291 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $161 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $148 +$13 +9%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $135 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $10 −$1 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $146 −$2 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $15 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $5 $0 -8%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $434 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 27 $193 −$32 -16%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $109 −$2 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $29 +$6 +20%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $117 −$4 -3%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $1,908 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $1,049 +$1 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $32 −$4 -13%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $957 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $955 +$2 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $965 −$11 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $71 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 09 $11 +$14 +127%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $163 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $163 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $12 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $29 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $40 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $163 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $10 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $22 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $130 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $146 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $153 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $72 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $72 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $168 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $168 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $168 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $168 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $168 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $167 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $168 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $168 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $153 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $12 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $141 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 81¢ $169 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 74¢ $155 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.33 · official $0.00 (match) · 412 history records