Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:52:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b68…bef4 other 9 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$773 (-53%) realized −$773 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$557
sports 35% −$334
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-74.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -71.4% -74.1% 12% 12% -68.9%
≤30d 8 -71.4% -74.1% 12% 12% -68.9%
≤90d 8 -71.4% -74.1% 12% 12% -68.9%
all 8 -71.4% -74.1% 12% 12% -68.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.1% 12% -68.9%
10% -76.6% 12% -71.9%
15% -78.8% 12% -74.6%
20% -80.9% 0% -77.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -71% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$138 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$773
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $123 −$119 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $543 −$421 -78%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $202 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $62 −$60 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$73 +36%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $101 −$32 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $123 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 12¢ $117 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $543 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11 BUY 62¢ $101 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $202 6d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 12¢ $62 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL 0¢ $0 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 95¢ $275 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $69 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 51¢ $101 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records