Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:20:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7B 0x7b68…cdb2 other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$611 (+20%) realized −$159 · open +$770
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$1,750now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$1,452
sports 38% −$272
crypto 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +9.8% -0.6% 62% 62% +9.6%
≤30d 13 +9.8% -0.6% 62% 62% +9.6%
≤90d 13 +9.8% -0.6% 62% 62% +9.6%
all 13 +9.8% -0.6% 62% 62% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 62% +9.6%
10% -10.1% 62% -0.9%
15% -18.8% 54% -10.5%
20% -26.8% 31% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$162 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1,750
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$770
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage6d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? No 51¢ 84¢ $730 $1,210 +$480 (+66%)
New Zealand leading at halftime? No 22¢ 86¢ $100 $389 +$289 (+289%)
Egypt leading at halftime? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $172 −$172 -100%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $324 +$851 +263%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $570 −$568 -100%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $272 +$74 +27%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 +$46 +46%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $151 +$72 +48%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $248 +$130 +52%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$17 +83%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $44 −$44 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$12 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 51¢ $741 14m
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY No 22¢ $102 43m
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $153 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $172 2h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 27¢ $324 29h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 86¢ $570 33h
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $346 2d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 74¢ $272 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $151 2d
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $248 2d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $44 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,749.93 · official $1,749.93 (match) · 25 history records