Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:50:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7B 0x7b66…4870 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$20 (+8%) realized +$19 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +703% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +627% what you keep after slip
Net edge+627%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$18
world 20% +$22
crypto 11% −$3
sports 9% +$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+626.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +703.1% +626.6% 100% 100% +626.6%
≤30d 1 +703.1% +626.6% 100% 100% +626.6%
≤90d 1 +703.1% +626.6% 100% 100% +626.6%
all 1 +703.1% +626.6% 100% 100% +626.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +626.6% 100% +626.6%
10% +557.1% 100% +557.1%
15% +493.6% 100% +493.6%
20% +435.4% 100% +435.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +703% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +703% · $-wt +703% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$158 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1 / 6
History coverage6d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 68¢ 99¢ $49 $71 +$22 (+45%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 66¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $45 $44 −$2 (-4%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $50 $37 −$12 (-25%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $24 $21 −$3 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $23 +$158 +703%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $47 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $181 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $23 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 7h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $37 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $12 6d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.61 · official $219.61 (match) · 8 history records