Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:24:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7B 0x7b5b…3cdf other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23 (+7%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$17
crypto 14% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.5% -28.1% 60% 40% -1.4%
≤30d 5 -20.5% -28.1% 60% 40% -1.4%
≤90d 5 -20.5% -28.1% 60% 40% -1.4%
all 5 -20.5% -28.1% 60% 40% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 40% -1.4%
10% -35.0% 20% -10.8%
15% -41.2% 20% -19.4%
20% -47.0% 20% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$25 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 37¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $70 +$9 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $80 +$58 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $70 +$7 +10%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 25m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $70 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $138 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $80 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 91¢ $70 24h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.03 · official $80.03 (match) · 11 history records