Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:06:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7B
0x7b59…51a3
other · 5 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%
Chart Positions 2 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 82% −$2
crypto 18% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 45h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -28.7% -35.5% 33% 33% -34.8%
≤30d 3 -28.7% -35.5% 33% 33% -34.8%
≤90d 3 -28.7% -35.5% 33% 33% -34.8%
all 3 -28.7% -35.5% 33% 33% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.5% 33% -34.8%
10% -41.7% 33% -41.0%
15% -47.3% 33% -46.7%
20% -52.5% 33% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.94 · official $4.94 (match) · 6 history records