Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b56…dcd6 crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$2 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate84%41W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 34% $0
other 33% +$4
crypto 27% −$16
finance 2% −$1
politics 2% $0
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 25 +4.2% -5.7% 92% 20% -7.3%
≤90d 49 +6.8% -3.4% 84% 14% -10.7%
all 49 +6.8% -3.4% 84% 14% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 14% -10.7%
10% -12.6% 10% -19.2%
15% -21.1% 6% -27.0%
20% -28.8% 4% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$15 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses41 / 8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage57d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 49¢ 54¢ $49 $54 +$5 (+11%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $19 $24 +$6 (+30%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $24 $10 −$14 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 7? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 7? Jun 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +34%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on May 31? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 31? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 31? Jun 04 $25 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9PM ET May 31 $30 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $22 −$19 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $24 +$34 +143%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $8 +$4 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 22? May 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 22? May 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 22? May 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on May 22? May 24 $30 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 22 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 22 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 22 $10 +$70 +685%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $27 −$26 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 13? May 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $650 in May? May 13 $20 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4AM ET May 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 10 $25 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 07 $1 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9PM ET May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 5? May 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Apr 30 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9PM ET Apr 30 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 11d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 11d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 11d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $11 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $15 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 18d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $5 18d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $6 18d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $6 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $25 25d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $15 25d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $15 25d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 25d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes $0 29d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes $3 29d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $58 29d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.90 · official $88.75 (match) · 104 history records