Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:28:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7B 0x7b54…d382 sports 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 356d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$3,829 (+10%) realized +$3,829 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%98W / 66L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$177est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$976
7 days+$976
14 days+$1,077
30 days+$769
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$2,989
other 5% +$587
crypto 1% +$39
economics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +28.5% +16.3% 80% 60% +15.0%
≤30d 44 +4.9% -5.1% 55% 48% -3.2%
≤90d 64 -14.7% -22.9% 42% 38% -14.4%
all 164 +10.0% -0.5% 60% 56% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 56% -1.0%
10% -10.0% 50% -10.4%
15% -18.7% 37% -19.1%
20% -26.7% 27% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$124 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

356d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,829
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses98 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$177
Open positions0
Markets (closed)164 / 164
History coverage356d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 164 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $233 +$107 +46%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $198 +$134 +68%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $202 +$17 +8%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $213 +$173 +81%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $212 −$110 -52%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 21 $157 +$52 +33%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $238 +$25 +10%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $338 +$35 +10%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $203 +$162 +80%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $294 +$84 +28%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $163 +$128 +78%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $264 −$97 -37%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $202 −$15 -7%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 19 $397 +$179 +45%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $294 +$102 +35%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $45 −$44 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $126 −$81 -64%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $602 −$169 -28%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $188 +$106 +56%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $341 −$152 -45%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $253 +$87 +35%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $79 −$76 -96%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $151 −$72 -47%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $347 −$196 -57%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $358 −$11 -3%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $374 −$17 -4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $601 +$477 +79%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $554 −$58 -10%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $132 +$62 +47%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $298 +$136 +46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $256 +$54 +21%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $382 −$126 -33%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $302 $0 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 11 $302 +$81 +27%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 10 $202 +$71 +36%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $113 −$20 -18%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 10 $204 +$39 +19%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 10 $122 +$89 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $202 −$81 -40%
Spread: Singapore (-2.5) May 31 $389 −$384 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $213 +$176 +83%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 23 $153 −$29 -19%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $101 +$29 +29%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 29 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 29 $352 −$215 -61%
Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego Padres Mar 29 $164 +$83 +51%
Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves Mar 29 $135 −$97 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 89¢ $340 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 60¢ $233 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 92¢ $332 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 54¢ $198 4h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Baltimore Orioles 78¢ $218 17h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 71¢ $202 18h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Minnesota Twins 94¢ $387 18h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 33¢ $102 19h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 51¢ $213 19h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 67¢ $212 20h
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) SELL Cleveland Guardians 81¢ $209 21h
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 60¢ $157 22h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Washington Nationals 71¢ $263 23h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 92¢ $113 23h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 81¢ $101 23h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 63¢ $238 24h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 67¢ $260 24h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 60¢ $238 25h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) SELL Cincinnati Reds 98¢ $365 25h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 54¢ $203 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 76¢ $377 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $294 28h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Baltimore Orioles 75¢ $290 41h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 41¢ $163 41h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 SELL Over 30¢ $94 41h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 SELL Over 31¢ $73 41h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $264 43h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ $188 43h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 61¢ $202 43h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Washington Nationals 62¢ $576 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 373 history records