Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7B 0x7b52…589a crypto 830 markets active 11h ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,142 (-1%) realized −$1,172 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate72%592W / 231L
Whale WR10%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day48.1pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$87
7 days+$46
14 days−$813
30 days−$1,744
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$41
weather 18% −$1,443
politics 6% +$63
world 6% −$2
other 4% −$128
sports 2% −$113
finance 2% −$87
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 -22.7% -30.0% 40% 8% -9.2%
≤30d 492 -16.0% -24.0% 55% 4% -12.2%
≤90d 823 -10.5% -19.0% 72% 3% -11.4%
all 823 -10.5% -19.0% 72% 3% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 3% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 2% -19.9%
15% -33.8% 1% -27.6%
20% -40.3% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 10% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$1,111
Realized−$1,172
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses592 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)10%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions10
Markets (closed)823 / 830
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$103
Trades / day48.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 823 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $330 $314 −$16 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $280 $221 −$59 (-21%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 88¢ 90¢ $111 $114 +$3 (+3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 79¢ 90¢ $98 $112 +$14 (+14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 100¢ $33 $102 +$69 (+212%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 97¢ 98¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 71¢ 88¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+24%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 65¢ 100¢ $34 $53 +$19 (+55%)
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $35 $24 −$11 (-32%)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes 35¢ 28¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Dan Schwartz be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? Jun 16 $19 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Will Lucas Digne be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $90 −$5 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 16 $269 +$3 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $24 −$11 -48%
Will Nuno Mendes be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 16 $0 $0 -3%
Will Francisco Conceição be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -44%
Will Francisco Trincão be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -59%
Will Ghana reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $0 $0 -31%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 16 $241 −$10 -4%
Will Lionel Messi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 16 $0 $0 -81%
Will Jordan Pickford be in England's Starting 11? Jun 16 $0 $0 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 16 $22 −$2 -10%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $208 −$7 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $85 +$3 +4%
Game Handicap: TST (-1.5) vs Suplex Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $30 +$46 +152%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $40 +$38 +95%
Will Spain be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Wo Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $142 +$8 +5%
Will Ousmane Dembélé be in France's Starting 11? Jun 15 $0 $0 +10%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Jun 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will Warren Zaïre-Emery be in France's Starting 11? Jun 15 $128 +$5 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 8-14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will William Saliba be in France's Starting 11? Jun 15 $144 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $194 +$3 +1%
Will Bradley Barcola be in France's Starting 11? Jun 14 $37 −$3 -8%
Will Cristian Romero be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Dayot Upamecano be in France's Starting 11? Jun 14 $1 $0 -22%
Will Micky van de Ven be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Jorrel Hato be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $1 $0 -35%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 14 $2 $0 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 11h
Will Dan Schwartz be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? SELL Yes 94¢ $19 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 3¢ $1 22h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 3¢ $1 22h
Will Dan Schwartz be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? BUY Yes 93¢ $19 25h
Will Lucas Digne be in France's Starting 11? SELL No 86¢ $85 31h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? SELL No 7¢ $15 34h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? SELL No 7¢ $0 34h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 40h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 42h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL Yes 2¢ $1 42h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 42h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL Yes 2¢ $1 42h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 0¢ $0 43h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 98¢ $49 43h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 98¢ $196 43h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 98¢ $16 43h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 98¢ $4 43h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 2¢ $0 43h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 2¢ $0 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $200 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $50 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $100 43h
Will Nuno Mendes be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL No 2¢ $0 43h
Will Francisco Conceição be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,110.81 · official $1,110.87 (match) · 3500 history records