Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:57:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b52…26f0 sports 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$60 (-13%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$69
other 22% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +16.2% +5.1% 30% 27% -13.4%
≤30d 33 +16.2% +5.1% 30% 27% -13.4%
≤90d 33 +16.2% +5.1% 30% 27% -13.4%
all 33 +16.2% +5.1% 30% 27% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.1% 27% -13.4%
10% -4.9% 15% -21.7%
15% -14.1% 12% -29.3%
20% -22.5% 6% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage5d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$42 +82%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $45 +$6 +12%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $97 $0 -0%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $58 −$33 -57%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $35 +$15 +42%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 $0 -8%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $18 −$12 -68%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $16 +$2 +11%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2 −$1 -43%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $2 +$1 +36%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $4 −$2 -54%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $4 $0 +0%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $4 $0 -1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$1 +22%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $13 −$9 -74%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$2 +17%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $9 −$8 -87%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $8 $0 -1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $13 +$4 +34%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $17 +$18 +104%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $9 −$4 -44%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$13 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 62¢ $93 20m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $51 55m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 86¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 76¢ $45 2h
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL Iraq 63¢ $46 3h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 69¢ $51 3h
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL Iraq 67¢ $51 6h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 59¢ $46 6h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 17¢ $16 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 13¢ $8 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 10¢ $9 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $50 9h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 67¢ $50 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $35 25h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 40¢ $5 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 42¢ $6 29h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 18¢ $6 29h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $18 30h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 77¢ $18 31h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 68¢ $16 32h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 29¢ $1 32h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 32h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $2 33h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $2 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 26¢ $2 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $4 35h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 89¢ $4 46h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $4 46h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 47¢ $4 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records