Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:54:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7B 0x7b4d…310b other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$30 (+33%) realized +$35 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip
Net edge+48%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$23
world 6% $0
crypto 6% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+53.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +69.9% +53.7% 67% 67% +54.8%
≤30d 9 +69.9% +53.7% 67% 67% +54.8%
≤90d 9 +69.9% +53.7% 67% 67% +54.8%
all 9 +69.9% +53.7% 67% 67% +54.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +53.7% 67% +54.8%
10% +39.0% 67% +40.0%
15% +25.6% 67% +26.5%
20% +13.3% 67% +14.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +71% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +70% · $-wt +71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.16 per $1 lost it wins $3.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)9 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 40¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? No 35¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$21 +414%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 50¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 40¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $5 10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $5 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $5 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $5 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 43¢ $5 37h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $5 37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $5 37h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 19¢ $5 37h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.78 · official $37.78 (match) · 26 history records