Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7B 0x7b4c…c1dd other 66 markets active 0h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$738 (+5%) realized +$604 · open +$134
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate50%32W / 32L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$1,083now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$976
7 days+$1,271
14 days+$1,271
30 days+$1,271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$2,039
sports 9% −$243
politics 9% −$773
world 4% −$174
culture 4% −$511
crypto 3% −$206
tech 3% −$248
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +47.6% +33.5% 67% 67% +20.3%
≤30d 9 +47.6% +33.5% 67% 67% +20.3%
≤90d 9 +47.6% +33.5% 67% 67% +20.3%
all 64 -5.8% -14.8% 50% 36% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 36% -10.3%
10% -22.9% 28% -18.9%
15% -30.4% 22% -26.7%
20% -37.2% 17% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$126 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$1,083
Realized+$604
Unrealized+$134
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses32 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)64 / 66
History coverage230d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 58¢ 70¢ $639 $776 +$137 (+21%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $310 $308 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $919 −$13 -2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $739 −$730 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,408 +$1,710 +122%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $478 +$154 +32%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $216 −$205 -95%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $211 +$130 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $302 +$52 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $380 +$164 +43%
Will Israel strike 1 country in 2026? Dec 31 $213 −$203 -95%
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by Decem Dec 31 $341 −$234 -69%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 31 $516 −$511 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2025-11-15? Nov 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 28 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7AM ET Nov 28 $164 −$164 -100%
Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting? Nov 28 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Nov 28 $56 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Nov 27 $12 −$12 -93%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Nov 26 $987 −$701 -71%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Nov 26 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26? Nov 26 $20 +$15 +74%
Will the Gaza–Israel conflict be the #1 searched news on Google this y Nov 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 26 $163 −$163 -100%
Will Dharmendra be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Nov 24 $272 +$240 +88%
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1600 on LMArena by Decem Nov 20 $20 −$14 -68%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $128 +$2 +2%
Will Racing Club win on 2025-11-16? Nov 17 $16 +$18 +117%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2025-11-15? Nov 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Will SC Recife win on 2025-11-15? Nov 15 $79 −$66 -84%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-15? Nov 15 $74 +$16 +22%
Will Switzerland win on 2025-11-15? Nov 15 $39 +$13 +34%
Will Kosovo win on 2025-11-15? Nov 15 $62 +$207 +332%
Will Poland win on 2025-11-14? Nov 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Nigeria vs. Gabon end in a draw? Nov 13 $120 +$2 +1%
Will Nigeria win on 2025-11-13? Nov 13 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Nov 12 $130 −$96 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Nov 12 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Nov 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11? Nov 11 $275 +$10 +4%
Uniswap protocol fee switch enabled by December 31? Nov 11 $288 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Nov 11 $50 +$88 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Nov 11 $55 +$35 +64%
Will Donald Trump say "Israel / Gaza" 6+ times during Syria President Nov 10 $18 +$3 +19%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $94 −$46 -49%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $94 +$35 +38%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $760 +$297 +39%
Will Erik Van Rooyen win the World Wide Technology Championship? Nov 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Vince Whaley win the World Wide Technology Championship? Nov 08 $8 −$8 -95%
Will Ricky Castillo win the World Wide Technology Championship? Nov 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2025-11-07? Nov 07 $89 +$9 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 25¢ $75 10m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $449 31m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $16 31m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $20 32m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 47¢ $370 34m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 48m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $441 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $306 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $613 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $716 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $143 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $114 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 32¢ $131 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $314 6h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $279 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $494 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,584 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,534 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $195 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $357 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 61¢ $247 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $609 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $632 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $478 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 34¢ $340 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $35 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,083.00 · official $1,083.00 (match) · 445 history records