Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:21:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b4b…6c42 crypto 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$63 (-7%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate62%45W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day102.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$24
sports 21% −$30
other 14% +$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -8.2% -17.0% 62% 27% -14.8%
≤30d 73 -8.2% -17.0% 62% 27% -14.8%
≤90d 73 -8.2% -17.0% 62% 27% -14.8%
all 73 -8.2% -17.0% 62% 27% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 27% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 14% -23.0%
15% -32.2% 5% -30.4%
20% -38.8% 3% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses45 / 28
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage2d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day102.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 -4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$7 +31%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $45 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $56 −$19 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$5 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$20 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -52%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $19 −$2 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $24 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 17m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $39 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 45m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $9 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $21 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 256 history records