Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:43:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7B 0x7b4b…2956 other 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$154 (+1%) realized +$154 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate24%18W / 57L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$13
other 24% +$2
politics 11% −$7
culture 2% −$1
sports 2% +$172
economics 1% −$1
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 +5.1% -4.9% 20% 10% -8.9%
≤90d 52 +8.2% -2.1% 21% 19% -8.7%
all 75 +8.8% -1.5% 24% 17% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 17% -8.9%
10% -11.0% 17% -17.7%
15% -19.6% 16% -25.6%
20% -27.5% 15% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$3 · ×6.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized+$154
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses18 / 57
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage610d
Avg bet$311
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $153 $153 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 05 $93 $0 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $36 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 27 $80 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $48 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $266 $0 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 22 $11 +$5 +52%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $219 −$1 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-13? May 18 $19 +$8 +42%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 11 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $226 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $324 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $225 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $213 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 02 $214 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $231 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $301 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 01 $218 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $451 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $224 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $236 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $214 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $235 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $227 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $452 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $226 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $215 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $227 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $239 $0 +0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $233 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $238 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $4 +$7 +165%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $12 +$13 +104%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Ducks vs. Canadiens Apr 06 $33 −$33 -100%
Magic vs. Heat Apr 06 $34 −$34 -100%
Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs. Prairie View A&M Panthers Apr 06 $35 −$35 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks Apr 06 $28 +$50 +178%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 30 $24 +$32 +133%
Blackhawks vs. Devils Mar 30 $38 +$24 +64%
Pelicans vs. Pistons Mar 27 $20 +$10 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $64 1h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $153 4d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 12d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $40 13d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $40 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 14d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 14d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $36 22d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 22d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $40 22d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $40 22d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 23d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $93 26d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 27d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 27d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $40 28d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $40 28d
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 65¢ $11 28d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $51 30d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $51 30d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 30d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 30d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $219 31d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $219 31d
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-13? BUY No 70¢ $19 37d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $230 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.58 · official $216.58 (match) · 314 history records