Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:06:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b42…09c4 world 88 markets active 6h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate26%23W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$9
politics 22% +$3
other 19% −$1
sports 16% −$15
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.7% -10.2% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 28 -0.8% -10.2% 25% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 75 -1.7% -11.1% 25% 0% -9.9%
all 88 -5.9% -14.8% 26% 5% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 5% -10.2%
10% -23.0% 5% -18.8%
15% -30.4% 2% -26.7%
20% -37.3% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses23 / 65
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage528d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $65 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $27 −$1 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $96 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $25 −$1 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $27 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $27 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $11 $0 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $6 −$1 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $24 +$1 +5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $56 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $82 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $24 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $27 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $25 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $60 −$5 -9%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $29 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $46 −$4 -8%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $1 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $58 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $30 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $94 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $31 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $31 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $31 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $30 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $67 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $66 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $66 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $31 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $53 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $10 35h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $13 35h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $24 37h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $26 42h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $26 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 33¢ $26 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $27 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $24 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $25 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $27 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $27 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $27 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $9 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $3 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 32¢ $11 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $22 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $3 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $10 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $15 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 327 history records